Previous posts explored one side of the coin by
attempting to identify players underrated by the average baseball fan. The flip side is the overrated. The guys that just aren’t worth the money they
get paid or the attention they receive. This
is the side of the coin that really brings out strong opinions.
How do you really know when someone is
overrated? Merriam Webster Online
defines to “overrate” as to rate, value, or estimate too highly. Yet sometimes it is easier to just go on
feeling.
There are several different ways that a player can
be overrated. One way is to simply not
perform to the level of hype.
Expectations play a big role in this aspect.
Take for example Joba Chamberlain. He was regarded as one of the greatest
prospects in the game of baseball tearing through the minor leagues. A can’t miss superstar. So there was an almost epic reputation, a
mythology, trumpeting his arrival in the majors. Then his first season with the Yankees saw
him post a 0.38 ERA with 34 strikeouts in only 24 innings. The hype train was out of control.
However, when the Yankees tried him as a starting
pitcher, he posted an ERA near five and issued an unreasonable amount of
walks. After floundering as a starter,
the Yankees shipped Chamberlain to the bullpen.
Things haven’t been much better as Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
indicates his 24 inning debut was more valuable to the Yankees than the last
four seasons combined.
In addition, another factor affecting the overrated
is shared with real estate. Location,
location, location. Players from the
larger market and more publicized teams are more likely to be overrated. Players such as Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Howard
and Daniel Bard are more lauded than their play warrants. It is much more difficult to gain that kind
of fame playing for the Padres or Pirates rather than the Boston Red Sox.
So there is not an equal shot for all players to
become overrated. Location such as New
York and hype can more heavily weight the coin to fall on the side of
overrated.
This is so true. New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, and the Anaheim Angles are some AL teams that come to mind that are big market teams that make it extremely easy to become over ratted players. This is mainly due to the fact that these teams have payrolls ten times to fifty times larger then some of their counterparts.
ReplyDeleteYeah, one of my favorite stats is that A-Rod is making more than all of the Houston Astros combined.
DeleteI love your description of the hype train. You write about baseball in such a personable way!
ReplyDeleteThanks, that kind of goes along with the shiny new toy syndrome from my previous post. No one is exactly sure what we will get so fans see stars in their eyes for the best possible outcome (sometimes unrealistically).
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