You Might Expect To Pay…

But wait there’s more.  Call in the next ten minutes and we’ll double your order and include the travel size version as our free gift to you (just pay separate shipping and handling).

Who doesn’t like to get something for free?  The makers of those “as seen on TV” ads sure seem to understand that.  And if you are playing fantasy baseball, have I got a deal for you.

 

One scoring category that you have to deal with is saves.  Unfortunately, that category is also the most volatile and most difficult to predict in the draft.  But that volatility is where the good news comes in during the season.  You don’t have to pay to get saves.

Every team anoints a closer at the start of the season.  Problem is that about a third of the thirty MLB teams will finish the season with a different man in the role.  Injury or ineffectiveness could lead a team to install a new ninth inning specialist.  In fact, only a quarter of the way into this season the Cardinals, Cubs, Tigers, Brewers, Red Sox and Diamondbacks have already made the switch. A few of the clubs have even replaced their closer more than once.

When Ryan Madson returns from injury, the Angels will join that list as the seventh team to depose a closer.  Madson’s return illustrates another point.  To provide value through saves, a closer just needs an opportunity.  Since all thirty teams designate a closer, any pitcher holding that closer label has the potential to provide value.

Looking back at 2012, picking amongst the eight highest drafted closers could have netted you Mariano Rivera, John Axford, Drew Storen, Brian Wilson or Heath Bell.  Injuries wiped out a large portion of the season for Rivera, Storen and Wilson.  Ineffectiveness sabotaged Bell and Axford.  Therefore, five of the eight would have failed to deliver on your investment.

On the other hand, “freely available” closers could have netted you very valuable statistics.  Undrafted Jim Johnson of the Orioles led the American League with 51 saves.  Forgotten man Fernando Rodney set a new ERA record with the Rays to go along with his 48 saves.  Rafael Soriano stepped in for the injured Mariano Rivera and churned out 42 saves.  These three men were the most valuable closers to own in the American League last year. 

 

And the best thing about those three players is that you could have added any one of them to your roster…for free.

Striking It Rich

The term prospecting probably arouses visions of pick axes, claims and the 1800s.  Or possibly someone hunkered down over a stream panning for treasure.  It is the elusive lure of riches by simply discovering gold.

However, gold is not the only valuable commodity discovered by prospecting.  Scouts and front offices of all the major league baseball teams are also searching for the next wave of talent.  That wave of talent comes in the form of baseball prospects and discovering a rising star can make many involved rich in several ways.

First, a player can benefit by raising his prospect status as an amateur.  While scouts will drool over a player’s natural “tools” such as speed and power, performance can raise the bar as well.  There is less perceived risk from a polished player.  Players selected early in the draft become millionaires before even setting foot on a diamond as a professional.

A team derives value from a successful prospect through team and cost control.  A team controls the rights to the player for several years before free agency can send the player’s salary through the roof.  In addition, for the first few years, a team can pay a player near league minimum.  Therefore, they can allocate the dollars saved to other areas of the roster to field a better team.

Of course there are increased revenue streams from fielding a contending team.  More coverage, more butts in the seats, and more merchandise sales are benefits.  Also, the playoffs create even more revenue.

In addition, the team and owners can benefit from a marketable star through other sources of revenue such as television deals, jersey and ticket sales and publicity.

Team general managers also benefit from prospects.  They can choose to trade prospects for established players.  Essentially, they are the currency used by contending teams to make a playoff run.  They are also the future that general managers of rebuilding teams try to acquire.  Fail to find good prospects and you will fail at your job.

Another beneficiary of prospecting would be a player agent.  Representing a quality prospect will lead to a nice commission from the subsequent contract negotiation.

Therefore, just as with gold prospecting, prospecting for baseball players carries plenty of potential reward.  Also, the similarities continue since claims may come up empty just like a player could flame out.  However, the lure of riches keeps on drawing many back in the hopes of striking it rich with the next prospect.

See You On The Flip Side

There are two sides to every coin.

Previous posts explored one side of the coin by attempting to identify players underrated by the average baseball fan.  The flip side is the overrated.  The guys that just aren’t worth the money they get paid or the attention they receive.  This is the side of the coin that really brings out strong opinions.

How do you really know when someone is overrated?  Merriam Webster Online defines to “overrate” as to rate, value, or estimate too highly.  Yet sometimes it is easier to just go on feeling.

There are several different ways that a player can be overrated.  One way is to simply not perform to the level of hype.  Expectations play a big role in this aspect. 

Take for example Joba Chamberlain.  He was regarded as one of the greatest prospects in the game of baseball tearing through the minor leagues.  A can’t miss superstar.  So there was an almost epic reputation, a mythology, trumpeting his arrival in the majors.  Then his first season with the Yankees saw him post a 0.38 ERA with 34 strikeouts in only 24 innings.  The hype train was out of control.

However, when the Yankees tried him as a starting pitcher, he posted an ERA near five and issued an unreasonable amount of walks.  After floundering as a starter, the Yankees shipped Chamberlain to the bullpen.  Things haven’t been much better as Wins Above Replacement (WAR) indicates his 24 inning debut was more valuable to the Yankees than the last four seasons combined.

In addition, another factor affecting the overrated is shared with real estate.  Location, location, location.  Players from the larger market and more publicized teams are more likely to be overrated.  Players such as Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Howard and Daniel Bard are more lauded than their play warrants.  It is much more difficult to gain that kind of fame playing for the Padres or Pirates rather than the Boston Red Sox.

So there is not an equal shot for all players to become overrated.  Location such as New York and hype can more heavily weight the coin to fall on the side of overrated.

Shiny New Toys

It’s the next big thing.  Take a closer look because it’s new and improved.  Bigger, shinier, faster.  Be the envy of your friends and neighbors.

Call it the shiny new toy syndrome.  Just try not to fall for it in your fantasy league.

In the previous post, I looked for the underrated players in baseball as a sport.  Fantasy baseball has underrated players too.  However, the parameters of what to look for are somewhat different.

Eric Hosmer is the first baseman for the Kansas City Royals.  In 2012, he was the exciting pick.  The twenty two year old was just dripping with upside.  After a successful rookie season in 2011, just imagine what he could do in his second season.  The sky was the limit for this shiny new toy that many couldn’t wait to draft.

Yet sometimes the sky comes crashing down.  This leads us to one version of the underrated player which is the older veteran.  For example, Paul Konerko is one such player.

Konerko probably just didn’t seem as exciting a pick in the draft.  We know who he is and have an idea of what the thirty six year old would provide.  The two men were generally selected as the seventh and eighth first basemen off the board.  But last year you would have been much happier drafting the grizzled old vet than the new guy on the block.

 

The numbers don’t lie. 

Sometimes the shiny new toy works out.  Of course Mike Trout worked out spectacularly last year.  But the downside is littered with Jemile Weeks, Dee Gordon, Mike Moustakas and Justin Masterson just to name a few. 

Paul Konerko, CC Sabathia, and Torii Hunter are the well-worn and familiar favorite old toys.  You have a pretty good idea of what you’re getting.  Sometimes old and reliable isn’t a bad thing.